Cement Manufacturers Association (CMA)

51 10.2 The Two Critical Unlock Conditions Industry expert consensus, corroborated by the TCO analysis, identifies two conditions whose simultaneous fulfilment would materially accelerate adoption beyond current trajectories. • Battery cost below USD 90/kWh: At this level, BET TCO becomes unambiguously superior to diesel across the dominant 35–55 tonne haul class in Indian open-cast operations, removing the need for subsidies to achieve fleet owner buy-in. Market forecasts suggest this threshold may be reached by 2027–2028 for LFP chemistry. • Commercial bank financing confidence: Achieved through a combination of 5-year verified field data from Indian pilots, DFI first- loss guarantee schemes, and the establishment of a functional battery resale market. Without bank financing at commercial rates, fleet operators remain dependent on equity or development finance—limiting scale. 10.3 Viable Pathways vs. Aspirational Targets There is a risk that India's mining EV targets—notably CIL's 681 EV ambition—function as aspirational positioning rather than operationally grounded commitments. CIL's track record on EV deployment since the first targets were set in 2022 suggests implementation capacity constraints that are not purely financial. Procurement cycles for large mining equipment in the public sector typically take 18–36 months, making the 681-unit target by FY2025-26 operationally challenging. The authors recommend recalibrating targets to align with procurement pipeline realities, while concurrently addressing the structural barriers that will determine the pace of sustainable, commercially-led adoption beyond the public sector. 11. Conclusions This paper has presented a comprehensive review of electric vehicle implementation in the Indian mining industry, synthesising evidence on market dynamics, technology economics, policy frameworks, and adoption barriers. The following principal conclusions are drawn. • India's EV transition in mining is early but accelerating: The CIL 681-EV target and the NHEV-Transvolt 1,000-truck deployment signal genuine institutional momentum, but current deployment (~200 units) remains orders of magnitude below global leaders. • The TCO case is positive for captive high- utilisation applications: At current battery prices (~USD 110/kWh), BETs achieve 23% lower per-km TCO in 25-tonne haul operations, with payback periods under 5 years—sufficient to justify targeted deployment in controlled environments. • Three critical bottlenecks demand priority policy attention: (a) high upfront costs requiring capital subsidies and VGF; (b) absent megawatt-class charging infrastructure at mine sites; and (c) battery import dependency requiring domestic manufacturing scale-up. • India requires mining-specific policy instruments: The adaptation of FAME-II/EMPS frameworks to mining equipment, the extension of NHEV VGF to captive mine fleets, and the introduction of EV fleet quotas in mine lease conditions are the three highest- priority near-term interventions. • Battery cost reduction to <USD 90/kWh is the pivotal unlock: This threshold—plausibly achievable by 2027–2028 under current market trajectories—will transform BETs from a policy- supported niche to a commercially preferred option across the majority of Indian mining haul applications. • The energy crisis is a structural accelerant, not merely a cyclical shock: Rising diesel import bills, renewable energy cost deflation, and ESG financing conditions are creating durable economic incentives for mining electrification that will persist beyond any individual policy cycle. The transition of Indian mining to electric haulage is not a question of if, but of how and how fast. The trajectory will be determined by the interplay between battery technology cost curves, infrastructure investment, and the quality and continuity of policy support. Early movers—both operators and financiers—who establish operational competence and data assets in the 2025–2028 window will hold decisive competitive advantage as the market scales.