Cement Manufacturers Association (CMA)

33 Refineries and Steel exhibit the largest absolute deficits; Chlor-Alkali and Pulp & Paper are smallest. Cement occupies a middle position with a modest but growing exposure, making the sector financially material but not existentially threatened in the early compliance years. Sector FY 2026 (MtCO₂e) FY 2028 (MtCO₂e) FY 2030 (MtCO₂e) Cement 0.5–1.0 0.8–1.3 1.0–1.5 Steel 1.0–1.8 1.5–2.2 1.8–2.5 Aluminium 0.4–0.8 0.6–1.0 0.8–1.2 Refineries 1.2–2.0 1.8–2.5 2.2–3.0 Petrochemicals 0.8–1.4 1.2–1.8 1.5–2.2 Pulp & Paper 0.2–0.5 0.4–0.7 0.5–0.9 Chlor-Alkali 0.1–0.4 0.3–0.6 0.4–0.8 Textiles 0.3–0.7 0.5–1.0 0.7–1.3 Sources: Sectoral emission-intensity data [1,3,9]; PAT-cycle learning [7,8]. Values are illustrative scenario ranges. 6. Hypothetical CCC Price Trajectory (2026–2035) Figure 2 presents low-and-high scenario ranges for the Indian CCC price over 2026–2035, constructed from: (i) reported planning-range assumptions of USD 8–15/tCO e in early-phase Indian analyses[2]; and 2 (ii) international analogues — the EU ETS at approximately USD 65–90/tCO e and China's 2 national ETS at approximately USD 7–10/tCO e.[12,13] 2 Figure 2: Hypothetical CCC Price Trajectory for the Indian Carbon Market (2026–2035). Shaded ribbon = low–high India CCC scenario. China ETS shown as reference. EU ETS (~USD 65–90/tCO ₂ e) is off-scale. Sources: ICRA ESG [2]; S&P Global [12]; European Commission [13] Early Phase Market Maturation Long-term Equilibrium CCC / Carbon Price [USD / tCO ₂ e] 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Prices are illustrative scenario ranges based on published assumptions and international benchmarks, not guaranteed outcomes. Sources: ICMA [10, 11]; S&P Global / World Cement [12]; European Commission [13]. 2035 Price Series India CCC: Low-High Scenario Range India CCC Low Scenario India CCC High Scenario China ETS (Reference, ~USD 7-10/tCO ₂ e range) Table 3: Estimated Sectoral CCC Deficit under India's CCTS — Tightening Benchmark Scenario (MtCO ₂ e)