Cement Manufacturers Association (CMA)

34 7. CCC Cost Burden and Sector-Level Financial Implications for Cement An Indian ESG-linked analysis projects that the cement sector may face cumulative CCC- purchase costs of approximately USD 50–130 million between FY 2025–26 and FY 2026–27, if emission intensity does not fall commensurately with production, under an assumed carbon price of USD 10/tCO e.[2] Figure 4 visualises this 2 cost burden alongside an international carbon price benchmark comparison. Table 4: Hypothetical CCC Price Scenarios for the Indian Carbon Market (2026–2035) Period Low Scenario (USD/tCO₂e) High Scenario (USD/tCO₂e) Basis & Commentary 2026–2027 $3–$8 $8–$12 Early-phase price formation; low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty [2,12]. 2028–2030 $5–$12 $10–$18 Market maturation; tightening benchmarks; improving MRV discipline [1,12] 2031–2033 $8–$16 $14–$23 Broader coverage; increasing compliance demand; possible linkage to international markets [9,12,13] 2034–2035 $10–$20 $18–$28 Long-term equilibrium; comparable to China ETS trajectory; well below EU ETS [12,13] Sources: ICRA ESG [2]; S&P Global [12]; European Commission [13]. Scenarios are indicative ranges only. Figure 4: (a) Hypothetical CCC Cost Burden for the Indian Cement Sector — FY 2025–26 and FY 2026–27 @USD 10/tCO ₂ e assumption. (b) International Carbon Price Benchmarks — India CCC vs. China ETS vs. EU ETS. Sources: ICRA ESG [2]; S&P Global [12]; European Commission [13]. (a) CCC Cost Burden — Indian Cement Sector @USD 10/tCO ₂ e assumption (b) Carbon Price Benchmarks — India vs. China ETS vs. EU ETS USD 10 assumption 55-85 7-10 3-12 EUETS (Current) ChinaETS (Current) IndiaCCC (2026–27) 0 20 40 60 80 100 Carbon Price (USD / tCO ₂ e) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 CImplied CCC Cost Burden (USD million) ~USD 113M (range: 100–130M) ~USD 60M (range: 30–70M) ~2x increase FY 2025-26 (Year 1) FY 2026-27 (Year 2) Sources: ICMA EVG / Business Standard [2]; S&P Global [12]; European Commission [13]. Values are illustrative scenario ranges.